Coping with War A Comparison Between Slaughterhouse Five...

Earnest Hemmingway once said Never think that war, no matter how necessary, nor how justified, is not a crime. (Ernest Hemingway: A Literary Reference) War is a gruesome and tragic thing and affects people differently. Both Vonnegut and Hemmingway discus this idea in their novels A Farewell to Arms and Slaughterhouse Five. Both of the novels deal not only with war stories but other genres, be it a science fiction story in Vonnegut’s case or a love story in Hemingway’s. Despite all the similarities there are also very big differences in the depiction of war and the way the two characters cope with their shocking and different experiences. It is the way someone deals with these tragedies that is the true story. This essay will evaluate†¦show more content†¦Billy wants to die, but like many other incidents in his life, he ironically manages to maintain his life while those around him, who want to live, die. It is during these occurrences that Billy first visits Tralfamadore. Tralfamadore is another planet where time is very different, where he could be on Tralfamadore for years, and still be away from Earth for only a microsecond (Vonnegut 32). Billys time travel is both a sanctuary away from the war and a constant reminder of it. Sometimes Billy will time travel to the pleasant bliss of Tralfamadore where he is married to Montana Wildhack, while other times he is forced to keep returning the same moment in time over and over again. This forces him to not only not forget about what he experienced in the war, but relive it. No matter what he does, Billy is not able to put the war in his past. Charles B. Harris believes that Tralfamadore serves to show Vonnegut’s conception of Dresden representing the inevitability of death as a manifestation of the larger enemy of time. By reinventing time, Vonnegut is able to reconcile with the destruction seen in Dresden. (Harris. Time, Uncertainty and Vonnegut Jr. 231) From the Tralfamadorians Bi lly learns that when a person dies he only appears to die. He is still very much alive in the past, so it is very silly for people to cry at his funeral. (Vonnegut 34) All moments, past, present, future, always have existed, always will exist. It is just

Essay on The Nature and Consequence of Sin - 638 Words

In the beginning there was man and there was simplicity. With the ending of that simplicity came sin. Sin can be defined as a â€Å"transgression against God’s will† (Knight, 2009) and the first documented transgression against God was Adam and Eve’s sin in the Garden of Eden in Genesis 3:6. (Tyndale, 2005) The short comings of Adam and Eve began a world wind of sin as discussed in Genesis chapters 3-11 After God made man (Adam) He put him into a deep slumber and removed from a rib from his body and made Eve. Their lives began honest and sin free within the Garden of Eden. They violated the laws of God when they ate from the forbidden fruit from the forbidden tree. They â€Å"transgressed† away from God. This first ever act of sin by Adam and†¦show more content†¦As Cain cries out to God about the severity of his punishment, God promises to safeguard his life where no harm or revenge for his actions will come to him. Cain is still punished for his acts but God’s love promises to protect him for the rest of his days. Adam, Eve and Cain all begin the true natural acts of sin. They were thoughtless acts that disobeyed God and made them to turn away from God’s laws if only for a moment. The nature of sin passed along in their lineage to the point of destruction. â€Å"The first act of human sinfulness describes the experience of all people†. (Fahlbusch, 2008) This statement is very true in describing how people naturally and carelessly sin without giving it a second thought. Lying, cheating and stealing have become daily occurrences in today’s society. Though no sin is greater than another and judged equally, murderers or judged more heavily and harsher by their peers. Since humans have put a level rating on sin, lies and deceit are more accepted and used because it’s not rated as high as murder or rape. â€Å"And God saw that the wickedness of man was great in the earth, and that every imagination of the thoughts of his heart was only evil continually.† (Tyndale, 2005) In Genesis 6:5, the heavy amount of sin that is taking place on earth is acknowledged. From this point God begins to implement a plan to erase all sin from the earth. He uses Noah as a vessel to save not only the animalsShow MoreRelatedScarlet Letter Theme Essay823 Words   |  4 Pagesincluding those of consequences for sin, sympathy, and the nature of evil, and as a result, the book takes on greater meaning because it encourages readers to study and interpret those themes. The most apparent and recurring theme in The Scarlet Letter is that sin and consequences are unavoidably connected, represented by Hester Prynne’s adultery and resulting punishment. 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Black House Chapter Nineteen Free Essays

string(114) " ponders the stretch of road ahead as if the road just might be up there, after all, although he knows it is not\." 19 JACK FOLLOWS THE Thunder Five out of the parking lot, and for the moment we will let him go alone on his northward way on Highway 93 toward Judy Marshall’s lookout and Judy Marshall’s locked ward. Like Jack, the bikers are headed toward the unknown, but their unknown lies westward on Highway 35, into the land of the steadily accumulating past, and we want to know what they will find there. These men do not appear to be nervous; they still project the massive confidence with which they burst into the Sand Bar. We will write a custom essay sample on Black House Chapter Nineteen or any similar topic only for you Order Now In truth, they never really display nervousness, for situations that would make other people worried or anxious generally make them get physical. Fear affects them differently than it does other people, too: in the rare moments when they have experienced fear, they’ve tended on the whole to enjoy it. In their eyes, fear represents a God-given opportunity for focusing their collective concentration. Due to their remarkable solidarity, that concentration is formidable. For those of us who are not members of a biker gang or the Marine Corps, solidarity means little more than the compassionate impulse that leads us to comfort a bereft friend; for Beezer and his merry band, solidarity is the assurance that someone’s always got your back. They are on each other’s hands, and they know it. For the Thunder Five, safety really is in numbers. Yet the encounter toward which they are flying has no precedents or analogues in their experience. Black House is something new, and its newness the sheer strangeness of Mouse’s story sinks tendrils down into their guts, one and all. Eight miles west of Centralia, where the flatland around Potsie’s thirty-year-old development yields to the long stretch of woods that runs all the way to Maxton’s, Mouse and Beezer ride side by side in front of the others. Beezer occasionally looks to his friend, asking a wordless question. The third time that Mouse shakes his head, he follows the gesture with a backward wave of his hand that says Stop bugging me, I’ll tell you when we’re there. Beezer drops back; Sonny, Kaiser Bill, and Doc automatically assume Beezer is giving them a signal, and they string out in a single line. At the head of the column, Mouse keeps taking his eyes off the highway to inspect the right-hand side of the road. The little road is hard to see, Mouse knows, and by now it will be more overgrown than it was two years ago. He is trying to spot the white of the battered NO TRESPASSING sign. It, too, may be partially hidden by new growth. He slows down to thirty-five. The four men behind him match his change in pace with the smoothness of long practice. Alone of the Thunder Five, Mouse has already seen their destination, and in the deepest places of his soul he can scarcely believe that he is going there again. At first, the ease and rapidity with which his memories had flown out of their dark vault had pleased him; now, instead of feeling that he has effortlessly reclaimed a lost part of his life, he has the sense of being at the mercy of that lost afternoon. A grave danger then and he does not doubt that some great and dangerous force had brushed him with a warning hand is an increased danger now. Memory has returned a miserable conclusion he thrust away long ago: that the hideous structure Jack Sawyer called Black House had killed Little Nancy Hale as surely as if its rafters had fallen in on her. Moral more than physical, Black House’s ugliness exhaled toxic fumes. Little Nancy had been killed by the invisible poisons carried on the warning hand; now Mouse had to look at that knowledge without blinking. He can feel her hands on his shoulders, and their thin bones are covered with rotting flesh. If I’d been five foot three and weighed one hundred and five pounds instead of being six-two and two hundred and ninety, by now I’d be rotting, too, he thinks. Mouse may look for the narrow road and the sign beside it with the eyes of a fighter pilot, but someone else has to see them, because he never will. His unconscious has taken a vote, and the decision was unanimous. Each of the other men, Sonny, Doc, the Kaiser, and even Beezer, have also connected Little Nancy’s death with Black House, and the same speculations about comparative size and weight have passed through their minds. However, Sonny Cantinaro, Doc Amberson, Kaiser Bill Strassner, and especially Beezer St. Pierre assume that whatever poison surrounded Black House had been concocted in a laboratory by human beings who knew what they were doing. These four men derive the old, primitive reassurance from one another’s company that they have enjoyed since college; if anything makes them feel a touch uneasy, it is that Mouse Baumann, not Beezer, leads their column. Even though Beezer let Mouse wave him back, Mouse’s position contains a hint of insurrection, of mutiny: the universe has been subtly disordered. Twenty yards from the back end of the Maxton property, Sonny decides to put an end to this farce, guns his Softail, roars past his friends, and moves up parallel to Mouse. Mouse glances at him with a trace of worry, and Sonny motions to the side of the road. When they have all pulled over, Mouse says, â€Å"What’s your problem, Sonny?† â€Å"You are,† Sonny says. â€Å"Either you missed the turnoff, or your whole story’s all fucked up.† â€Å"I said I wasn’t sure where it is.† He notices with nearly immeasurable relief that Little Nancy’s dead hands no longer grip his shoulders. â€Å"Of course not. You were ripped on acid!† â€Å"Good acid.† â€Å"Well, there’s no road up ahead, I know that much. It’s just trees all the way to the old fucks’ home.† Mouse ponders the stretch of road ahead as if the road just might be up there, after all, although he knows it is not. You read "Black House Chapter Nineteen" in category "Essay examples" â€Å"Shit, Mouse, we’re practically in town. I can see Queen Street from here.† â€Å"Yeah,† Mouse says. â€Å"Okay.† If he can get to Queen Street, he thinks, those hands will never fasten on him again. Beezer walks his Electra Glide up to them and says, â€Å"Okay what, Mouse? You agree it’s farther back, or is the road somewhere else?† Frowning, Mouse turns his head to look back down the highway. â€Å"Goddamn. I think it’s along here somewhere, unless I got totally turned around that day.† â€Å"Gee, how could that have happened?† says Sonny. â€Å"I looked at every inch of ground we passed, and I sure as hell didn’t see a road. Did you, Beezer? How about a NO TRESPASSING sign, you happen to see one of those?† â€Å"You don’t get it,† Mouse says. â€Å"This shit doesn’t want to be seen.† â€Å"Maybe you shoulda gone to Ward D with Sawyer,† Sonny says. â€Å"People in there appreciate visionaries.† â€Å"Can it, Sonny,† Beezer says. â€Å"I was there before, and you weren’t,† Mouse says. â€Å"Which one of us knows what he’s talking about?† â€Å"I’ve heard enough out of both of you guys,† Beezer says. â€Å"Do you still think it’s along here somewhere, Mouse?† â€Å"As far as I can recollect, yeah.† â€Å"Then we missed it. We’ll go back and check again, and if we don’t find it, we’ll look somewhere else. If it’s not here, it’s between two of the valleys along 93, or in the woods on the hill leading up to the lookout. We have plenty of time.† â€Å"What makes you so sure?† Sonny asks. Mild anxiety about what they might come across is making him belligerent. He would just as soon go back to the Sand Bar and down a pitcher of Kingsland while messing with Stinky’s head as waste his time goofing along the highways. Beezer looks at him, and his eyes crackle. â€Å"You know anywhere else there’s enough trees to call it a woods?† Sonny backs down immediately. Beezer is never going to give up and go back to the Sand Bar. Beezer is in this for keeps. Most of that has to do with Amy, but some of it relates to Jack Sawyer. Sawyer impressed the shit out of Beezer the other night, that’s what happened, and now Beezer thinks everything the guy says is golden. To Sonny, this makes no sense at all, but Beezer’s the one who calls the shots, so for now, Sonny guesses, they will all run around like junior G-men for a while. If this adopt-a-cop program goes on for more than a couple of days, Sonny plans to have a little chat with Mouse and the Kaiser. Doc will always side with Beezer no matter what, but the other two are capable of listening to reason. â€Å"All right, then,† Beezer says. â€Å"Scratch from here to Queen Street. We know there’s no fuckin’ road along that stretch. We’ll go back the way we came, give it one more shot. Single file the whole way. Mouse, you’re point man again.† Mouse nods and prepares himself to feel those hands on his shoulders again. Gunning his Fat Boy, he rolls forward and takes his place at the head of the line. Beezer moves in behind him, and Sonny follows Beezer, with Doc and the Kaiser in the last two slots. Five pairs of eyes, Sonny thinks. If we don’t see it this time, we never will. And we won’t, because that damned road is halfway across the state. When Mouse and his old lady got buzzed on the Ultimate, they could go for hundreds of miles and think they’d taken a spin around the block. Everybody scans the opposite side of the road and the edge of the woods. Five pairs of eyes, as Sonny puts it, register an unbroken line of oaks and pine trees. Mouse has set a pace somewhere between a fast walk and a medium jog, and the trees crawl by. At this speed, they can notice the moss blistering the trunks of the oaks and the bright smears of sunlight on the forest’s floor, which is brownish gray and resembles a layer of rumpled felt. A hidden world of upright trees, shafts of light, and deadfalls extends backward from the first, sentinel row. Within that world, paths that are not paths wind mazelike between the thick trunks and lead to mysterious clearings. Sonny becomes suddenly aware of a tribe of squirrels doing squirrel gymnastics in the map of branches that lace into an intermittent canopy. And with the squirrels, an aviary of birds pops into view. All of this reminds him of the deep Pennsylvania woods he had explored as a boy, before his parents sold their house and moved to Illinois. Those woods had contained a rapture he had found nowhere else. Sonny’s conviction that Mouse got things wrong and they are looking in the wrong place takes on greater inner density. Earlier, Sonny had spoken about bad places, of which he has seen at least one he was absolutely certain about. In Sonny’s experience, bad places, the ones that let you know you were not welcome, tended to be on or near borders. During the summer after his high school graduation, he and his two best buddies, all of them motorcycle freaks, had taken their bikes to Rice Lake, Wisconsin, where he had two cousins cute enough to show off to his friends. Sal and Harry were thrilled with the girls, and the girls thought the bikers were sexy and exotic. After a couple of days spent as a literal fifth wheel (or fifth and sixth wheel, depending on what you are counting), Sonny proposed extending their trip by a week and, in the interest of expanding their educations, ballin’ the jack down to Chicago and spending the rest of their money on beer and hookers until they had to go home. Sal and Harry loved the whole idea, and on their third evening in Rice Lake, they packed their rolls on their bikes and roared south, making as much noise as possible. By 10:00 they had managed to get completely lost. It might have been the beer, it might have been inattention, but for one reason or another they had wandered off the highway and, in the deep black of a rural night, found themselves on the edge of an almost nonexistent town named Harko. Harko could not be found on their gas-station road map, but it had to be close to the Illinois border, on either one side or the other. Harko seemed to consist of an abandoned motel, a collapsing general store, and an empty grain mill. When the boys reached the mill, Sal and Harry groused about being exhausted and hungry and wanted to turn back to spend the night in the motel. Sonny, who was no less worn out, rode back with them; the second they rolled into the dark forecourt of the motel, he had a bad feeling about the place. The air seemed heavier, the darkness darker than they should have been. To Sonny, it seemed that malign, invisible presences haunted the place. He could all but make them out as they flitted between the cabins. Sal and Harry jeered at his reservations: he was a coward, a fairy, a girl. They broke down a door and unrolled their sleeping bags in a bare, dusty rectangular room. He carried his across the street and slept in a field. Dawn awakened him, and his face was wet with dew. He jumped up, pissed into the high grass, and checked for the motorcycles on the other side of the road. There they were, all three of them, listing over their stands outside a broken door. The dead neon sign at the entrance of the forecourt read HONEYMOONER’S BOWER. He walked across the narrow road and swept a hand over the moisture shining black on the seats of the motorcycles. A funny sound came from the room where his friends were sleeping. Already tasting dread, Sonny pushed open the broken door. If he had not initially refused to make sense of what was before him, what he saw in the room would have made him pass out. His face streaked with blood and tears, Sal Turso was sitting on the floor. Harry Reilly’s severed head rested in his lap, and an ocean of blood soaked the floor and daubed the walls. Harry’s body lay loose and disjointed on top of his blood-soaked sleeping bag. The body was naked; Sal wore only a blood-red T-shirt. Sal raised both his hands the one holding his prize long-bladed knife and the one holding only a palmful of blood and lifted his contorted face to Sonny’s frozen gaze. I don’t know what happened. His voice was high and screechy, not his. I don’t remember doing this, how could I have done this? Help me, Sonny. I don’t know what happened. Unable to speak, Sonny had backed out and flown away on his cycle. He’d had no clear idea of where he was going except that it was out of Harko. Two miles down the road, he came to a little town, a real one, with people in it, and someone finally took him to the sheriff’s office. Harko: there was a bad place. In a way, both of his high school friends had died there, because Sal Turso hanged himself six months after being committed to a state penitentiary for life on a second-degree murder charge. In Harko, you saw no red-winged blackbirds or woodpeckers. Even sparrows steered clear of Harko. This little stretch of 35? Nothing but a nice, comfortable woodland. Let me tell you, Senator, Sonny Cantinaro has seen Harko, and this ain’t no Harko. This don’t even come close. It might as well be in another world. What meets Sonny’s appraising eye and increasingly impatient spirit is about a mile and a quarter of beautiful wooded landscape. You could call it a mini-forest. He thinks it would be cool to come out here by himself one day, tuck the Harley out of sight, and just walk around through the great oaks and pines, that big pad of felt beneath his feet, digging the birds and the crazy squirrels. Sonny gazes at and through the sentinel trees on the far side of the road, enjoying his anticipation of the pleasure to come, and a flash of white jumps out at him from the darkness beside a huge oak tree. Caught up in the vision of walking alone under that green canopy, he almost dismisses it as a trick of the light, a brief illusion. Then he remembers what he is supposed to be looking for, and he slows down and leans sideways and sees, emerging from the tangle of underbrush at the base of the oak, a rusty bullet hole and a large, black letter N. Sonny swerves across the road, and the N expands into NO. He doesn’t believe it, but there it is, Mouse’s goddamn sign. He rolls ahead another foot, and the entire phrase comes into view. Sonny puts the bike in neutral and plants one foot on the ground. The darkness next to the oak stretches like a web to the next tree at the side of the road, which is also an oak, though not as huge. Behind him, Doc and the Kaiser cross the road and come to a halt. He ignores them and looks at Beezer and Mouse, who are already some thirty feet up the road, intently scanning the trees. â€Å"Hey,† he shouts. Beezer and Mouse do not hear him. â€Å"Hey! Stop!† â€Å"You got it?† Doc calls out. â€Å"Go up to those assholes and bring them back,† Sonny says. â€Å"It’s here?† Doc asks, peering into the trees. â€Å"What, you think I found a body? Of course it’s here.† Doc speeds up, stops just behind Sonny, and stares at the woods. â€Å"Doc, you see it?† Kaiser Bill shouts, and he speeds up, too. â€Å"Nope,† Doc says. â€Å"You can’t see it from there,† Sonny tells him. â€Å"Will you please get your ass in gear and tell Beezer to come back here?† â€Å"Why don’t you do it, instead?† Doc says. â€Å"Because if I leave this spot, I might not ever be able to fucking find it again,† Sonny says. Mouse and Beezer, now about sixty feet up the road, continue blithely on their way. â€Å"Well, I still don’t see it,† Doc says. Sonny sighs. â€Å"Come up alongside me.† Doc walks his Fat Boy to a point parallel with Sonny’s bike, then moves a couple of inches ahead. â€Å"There,† Sonny says, pointing at the sign. Doc squints and leans over, putting his head above Sonny’s handle-bars. â€Å"Where? Oh, I see it now. It’s all beat to hell.† The top half of the sign curls over and shades the bottom half. Some antisocial lad has happened along and creased the sign with his baseball bat. His older brothers, more advanced in the ways of crime, had tried to kill it with their .22 rifles, and he was just delivering the coup de grace. â€Å"Where’s the road supposed to be?† Doc asks. Sonny, who is a little troubled about this point, indicates the flat sheet of darkness to the right of the sign and extending to the next, smaller oak tree. As he looks at it, the darkness loses its two-dimensionality and deepens backward like a cave, or a black hole softly punched through the air. The cave, the black hole, melts and widens into the earthen road, about five and a half feet wide, that it must have been all along. â€Å"That sure as hell is it,† says Kaiser Bill. â€Å"I don’t know how all of us could have missed it the first time.† Sonny and Doc glance at each other, realizing that the Kaiser came along too late to watch the road seem to materialize out of a black wall with the thickness of a sheet of paper. â€Å"It’s kind of tricky,† Sonny says. â€Å"Your eyes have to adjust,† Doc says. â€Å"Okay,† says Kaiser Bill, â€Å"but if you two want to argue about who tells Mouse and the Beeze, let me put you out of your misery.† He jams his bike into gear and tears off like a World War I messenger with a hot dispatch from the front. By now a long way up the road, Mouse and Beezer come to a halt and look back, having apparently heard the sound of his bike. â€Å"I guess that’s it,† Sonny says, with an uneasy glance at Doc. â€Å"Our eyes had to adjust.† â€Å"Couldn’t be anything else.† Less convinced than they would like to be, both men let it drop in favor of watching Kaiser Bill conversing with Beezer and Mouse. The Kaiser points at Sonny and Doc, Beezer points. Then Mouse points at them, and the Kaiser points again. It looks like a discussion in an extremely unevolved version of sign language. When everybody has gotten the point, Kaiser Bill spins his bike around and comes roaring back down the road with Beezer and Mouse on his tail. There is always that feeling of disorder, of misrule, when Beezer is not in the lead. The Kaiser stops on the side of the narrow road. Beezer and Mouse halt beside him, and Mouse winds up stationed directly in front of the opening in the woods. â€Å"Shouldn’t have been that hard to see,† Beezer says. â€Å"But there she is, anyhow. I was beginning to have my doubts, Mousie.† â€Å"Uh-huh,† says Mouse. His customary manner, that of an intellectual roughneck with a playful take on the world, has lost all of its buoyancy. Beneath his biker’s fair-weather sunburn, his skin looks pale and curdlike. â€Å"I want to tell you guys the truth,† Beezer says. â€Å"If Sawyer is right about this place, the creepy fuck who built it could have set up booby traps and all sorts of surprises. It was a long time ago, but if he really is the Fisherman, he has more reason than ever to keep people away from his crib. So we gotta watch our backs. The best way to do that is to go in strong, and go in ready. Put your weapons where you can reach them in a hurry, all right?† Beezer opens one of his saddlebags and draws out a Colt 9mm pistol with ivory grips and a blue-steel barrel. He chambers a round and unlocks the safety. Under his gaze, Sonny pulls his massive .357 Magnum from his bag, Doc a Colt identical to Beezer’s, and Kaiser Bill an old S .38 Special he has owned since the late seventies. They shove the weapons, which until this moment have seen use only on firing ranges, into the pockets of their leather jackets. Mouse, who does not own a gun, pats the various knives he has secreted in the small of his back, in the hip and front pockets of his jeans, and sheathed within both of his boots. â€Å"Okay,† Beezer says. â€Å"Anybody in there is going to hear us coming no matter what we do, and maybe already has heard us, so there’s no point in being sneaky about this. I want a fast, aggressive entrance just what you guys are good at. We can use speed to our advantage. Depending on what happens, we get as close to the house as possible.† â€Å"What if nothing happens?† asks the Kaiser. â€Å"Like, if we roll on in there and just keep going until we get to the house? I mean, I don’t see any particular reason to be spooked here. Okay, something bad happened to Mouse, but . . . you know. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen all over again.† â€Å"Then we enjoy the ride,† Beezer says. â€Å"Don’t you want to take a look inside?† the Kaiser asks. â€Å"He might have kids in there.† â€Å"He might be in there,† Beezer tells him. â€Å"If he is, no matter what I said to Sawyer, we’re bringing him out. Alive would be better than dead, but I wouldn’t mind putting him in a serious state of bad health.† He gets a rumble of approval. Mouse does not contribute to this wordless, but otherwise universal agreement; he lowers his head and tightens his hands on the grips of his bike. â€Å"Because Mouse has been here before, he goes in on point. Doc and I’ll be right behind him, with Sonny and the Kaiser covering our asses.† Beezer glances at them and says, â€Å"Stay about six, eight feet back, all right?† Don’t put Mouse on point; you have to go in first, speaks in Sonny’s mind, but he says, â€Å"All right, Beeze.† â€Å"Line up,† Beezer says. They move their bikes into the positions Beezer has specified. Anyone driving fast along Highway 35 would have to hit his brakes to avoid running into at least two beefy men on motorcycles, but the road stays empty. Everyone, including Mouse, guns his engine and prepares to move. Sonny slaps his fist against the Kaiser’s and looks back at that dark tunnel into the woods. A big crow flaps onto a low-hanging branch, cocks its head, and seems to fix Sonny’s eyes with its own. The crow must be looking at all of them, Sonny knows, but he cannot shake the illusion that the crow is staring directly at him, and that its black insatiable eyes are dancing with malice. The uncomfortable feeling that the crow is amused by the sight of him bent over his bike makes Sonny think of his Magnum. Turn you into a mess of bloody feathers, baby. Without unfolding its wings, the crow hops backward and disappears into the oak leaves. â€Å"GO!† Beezer shouts. The moment Mouse charges in, Little Nancy’s rotting hands clamp down on his shoulders. Her thin bones press down on the leather hard enough to leave bruises on his skin. Although he knows this is impossible you cannot get rid of what does not exist the sudden flare of pain causes him to try to shake her off. He twitches his shoulders and wiggles the handlebars, and the bike wobbles. As the bike dips, Little Nancy digs in harder. When Mouse rights himself, she pulls herself forward, wraps her bony arms around his chest, and flattens her body against his back. Her skull grinds against the nape of his neck; her teeth bite down on his skin. It is too much. Mouse had known she would reappear, but not that she would put him in a vise. And despite his speed, he has the feeling that he is traveling through a substance heavier and more viscous than air, a kind of syrup that slows him down, holds him back. Both he and the bike seem unnaturally dense, as if gravity exerts a stronger pull on the little road than anywhere else. His head pounds, and already he can hear that dog growling in the woods off to his right. He could take all of that, he supposes, if it were not for what stopped him the last time he drove up this path: a dead woman. Then she was Kiz Martin; now the dead woman is Little Nancy, and she is riding him like a dervish, slapping his head, punching him in the side, battering his ears. He feels her teeth leave his neck and sink into the left shoulder of his jacket. One of her arms whips in front of him, and he enters a deeper level of shock and horror when he realizes that this arm is visible. Rags of skin flutte r over long bones; he glimpses white maggots wriggling into the few remaining knots of flesh. A hand that feels both spongelike and bony flaps onto his cheek and crawls up his face. Mouse cannot keep it together anymore: his mind fills with white panic, and he loses control of the bike. When he heads into the curve that leads to Black House, the wheels are already tilting dangerously, and Mouse’s sideways jerk of revulsion pushes them over beyond the possibility of correction. As the bike topples, he hears the dog snarling from only a few yards away. The Harley smashes down on his left leg, then skids ahead, and he and his ghastly passenger slide after it. When Mouse sees Black House looming from its dark bower amid the trees, a rotting hand flattens over his eyes. His scream is a bright, thin thread of sound against the fury of the dog. A few seconds after going in, Beezer feels the air thicken and congeal around him. It’s some trick, he tells himself, an illusion produced by the Fisherman’s mind-fuck toxins. Trusting that the others will not be suckered by this illusion, he raises his head and looks over Mouse’s broad back and cornrowed head to see the road curve to the left about fifty feet ahead. The thick air seems to weigh down on his arms and shoulders, and he feels the onset of the mother and father of all headaches, a dull, insistent pain that begins as a sharp twinge behind his eyes and moves thudding deeper into his brain. Beezer gives Doc a half second of attention, and from what he sees, Doc is taking care of business. A glance at the speedometer tells him that he is traveling at thirty-five miles per hour and gathering steam, so they should be doing sixty by the time they come into the curve. Off to his left, a dog growls. Beezer hauls his pistol out of his pocket and listens to the growling keep pace with them as they speed toward the curve. The band of pain in his head widens and intensifies; it seems to push at his eyes from the inside, making them bulge in their sockets. The big dog it has to be a dog, what else could it be? is getting closer, and the fury of its noises makes Beezer see a giant, tossing head with blazing red eyes and ropes of slather whipping from a gaping mouth filled with shark’s teeth. Two separate things destroy his concentration: the first is that he sees Mouse slamming himself back and forth on his bike as he goes into the curve, as if he is trying to scratch his back on the thickening air; the second is that the pressure behind his eyes triples in force, and immediately after he sees Mouse going into what is surely a fall, the blood vessels in his eyes explode. From deep red, his vision shifts rapidly to absolute black. An ugly voice starts up in his head, saying, Amy zadt in my lap an huggedt mee. I made opp my mindt to eed hurr. How she dud, dud, dud kick an scrutch. I chokked hurr do deff â€Å"No!† Beezer shouts, and the voice that is pushing at his eyes drops into a rasping chuckle. For less than a second, he gets a vision of a tall, shadowy creature and a single eye, a flash of teeth beneath a hat or a hood and the world abruptly revolves around him, and he ends up flat on his back with the bike weighing on his chest. Everything he sees is stained a dark, seething red. Mouse is screaming, and when Beezer turns his head in the direction of the screams, he sees a red Mouse lying on a red road with a huge red dog barreling toward him. Beezer cannot find his pistol; it went sailing into the woods. Shouts, screams, and the roar of motorcycles fill his ears. He scrambles out from under the bike yelling he knows not what. A red Doc flashes by on his red bike and almost knocks him down again. He hears a gunshot, then another. Doc sees Beezer glance at him and tries not to show how sick he feels. Dishwater boils in his stomach, and his guts are writhing. It feels like he is going about five miles an hour, the air is so thick and rancid. For some reason, his head weighs thirty or forty pounds, damnedest thing; it would almost be interesting if he could stop the disaster happening inside him. The air seems to concentrate itself, to solidify, and then boom, his head turns into a superheavyweight bowling ball that wants to drop onto his chest. A giant growling sound comes from out of the woods beside him, and Doc almost yields to the impulse to puke. He is dimly aware that Beezer is pulling out his gun, and he supposes he should do the same, but part of his problem is that the memory of a child named Daisy Temperly has moved into his mind, and the memory of Daisy Temperly paralyzes his will. As a resident in surgery at the university hospital in Urbana, Doc had performed, under supervision, nearly a hundred operations of every sort and assisted at as many. Until Daisy Temperly was wheeled into the O.R., all of them had gone well. Complicated but not especially difficult or life-threatening, her case involved bone grafts and other repair work. Daisy was being put back together again after a serious auto accident, and she had already endured two previous surgeries. Two hours after the start of the procedure, the head of the department, Doc’s supervisor, was called away for an emergency operation, and Doc was left in charge. Partly because he had been sleep-deprived for forty-eight hours, partly because in his exhaustion he had pictured himself cruising along the highway with Beezer, Mouse, and his other new friends, he made a mistake not during the operation, but after it. While writing a prescription for medication, he miscalculated the dosage, and two hours later , Daisy Temperly was dead. There were things he could have done to rescue his career, but he did none of them. He was allowed to finish his residency, and then he left medicine for good. Talking to Jack Sawyer, he had vastly simplified his motives. The uproar in the middle of his body can no longer be contained. Doc turns his head and vomits as he races forward. It is not the first time he has puked while riding, but it is the messiest and the most painful. The weight of his bowling-ball head means that he cannot extend his neck, so vomit spatters against his right shoulder and right arm; and what comes leaping out of him feels alive and equipped with teeth and claws. He is not surprised to see blood mixed with the vomit erupting from his mouth. His stomach doubles in on itself with pain. Without meaning to, Doc has slowed down, and when he accelerates and faces forward again, he sees Mouse topple over sideways and skid behind his bike into the curve up ahead. His ears report a rushing sound, like that of a distant waterfall. Dimly, Mouse screams; equally dimly, Beezer shouts â€Å"No!† Right after that, the Beeze runs headlong into a big rock or some other obstruction, because his Electra Glide leaves the ground, flips completely over in the compacted air, and comes down on top of him. It occurs to Doc that this mission is totally FUBAR. The whole world has hung a left, and now they are in deep shit. He does the only sensible thing: he yanks his trusty 9mm out of his pocket and tries to figure out what to shoot first. His ears pop, and the sounds around him surge into life. Mouse is still screeching. Doc cannot figure out how he missed hearing the noise of the dog before, because even with the roaring of the cycles and Mouse’s screams, that moving growl is the loudest sound in the woods. The fucking Hound of the Baskervilles is racing toward them, and both Mouse and Beezer are out of commission. From the noise it makes, the thing must be the size of a bear. Doc aims the pistol straight ahead and steers with one hand as he blasts by Beezer, who is wriggling out from beneath his bike. That enormous sound Doc imagines a bear-sized dog widening its chops around Mouse’s head, and instantly erases the image. Things are happening too fast, and if he doesn’t pay attention, those jaws could close on him. He has just time enough to think, That’s no ordinary dog, not even a huge one when something enormous and black comes charging out of the woods to his right and cuts on a diagonal toward Mouse. Doc pulls the trigger, and at the sound of the pistol the animal whirls halfway around and snarls at him. All Doc can see clearly are two red eyes and an open red mouth with a long tongue and a lot of sharp canine teeth. Everything else is smudgy and indistinct, with no more definition than if it were covered in a swirling cape. A lightning bolt of pure terror that tastes as clean and sharp as cheap vodka pierces Doc from gullet to testicles, and his bike slews its rear end around and comes to a halt he has stopped it out of sheer reflex. Suddenly it feels like deep night. Of course he can’t see it how could you see a black dog in the middle of the night? The creature whirls around again and streaks toward Mouse. It doesn’t want to charge me because of the gun and because the other two guys are right behind me, Doc thinks. His head and arms seem to have gained another forty pounds apiece, but he fights against the weight of his muscles and straightens his arms and fires again. This time he knows he hits that thing, but its only reaction is to shudder off-course for a moment. The big smudge of its head swings toward Doc. The growling gets even louder, and long, silvery streamers of dog drool fly from its open mouth. Something that suggests a tail switches back and forth. When Doc looks into the open red gash, his resolve weakens, his arms get heavier, and he is scarcely capable of holding his head upright. He feels as though he is falling down into that red maw; his pistol dangles from his limp hand. In a moment suspended throughout eternity, the same hand scribbles a post-op prescription for Daisy Temperly. The creature trots toward Mouse. Doc can hear Sonny’s voice, cursing furiously. A loud explosion on his right side seals both of his ears, and the world falls perfectly silent. Here we are, Doc says to himself. Darkness at noon. For Sonny, the darkness strikes at the same time as the searing pain in his head and his stomach. A single band of agony rips right down through his body, a phenomenon so unparalleled and extreme that he assumes it has also erased the daylight. He and Kaiser Bill are eight feet behind Beezer and Doc, and about fifteen feet up the narrow dirt road. The Kaiser lets go of his handlebars and grips the sides of his head. Sonny understands exactly how he feels: a four-foot section of red-hot iron pipe has been thrust through the top of his head and pushed down into his guts, burning everything it touches. â€Å"Hey, man,† he says, in his misery noticing that the air has turned sludgy, as though individual atoms of oxygen and carbon dioxide are gummy enough to stick to his skin. Then Sonny notices that the Kaiser’s eyes are swimming up toward the back of his head, and he realizes that the man is passing out right next to him. Sick as he is, he has to do something to protect th e Kaiser. Sonny reaches out for the other man’s bike, watching as well as he can the disappearance of the Kaiser’s irises beneath his upper eyelids. Blood explodes out of his nostrils, and his body slumps backward on the seat and rolls over the side. For a couple of seconds, he is dragged along by a boot caught in the handlebars, but the boot slips off, and the cycle drifts to a halt. The red-hot iron bar seems to rupture his stomach, and Sonny has no choice; he lets the other bike fall and utters a groan and bends sideways and vomits out what feels like every meal he has ever eaten. When nothing is left inside him, his stomach feels better, but John Henry has decided to drive giant rail spikes through his skull. His arms and legs are made of rubber. Sonny focuses on his bike. It seems to be standing still. He does not understand how he can go forward, but he watches a blood-spattered hand gun his bike and manages to stay upright when it takes off. Is that my blood? he wonders, and remembers two long red flags unfurling from the Kaiser’s nose. A noise that had been gathering strength in the background turns into the sound of a 747 coming in for a landing. Sonny thinks that the last thing he wants to do today is get a look at the animal capable of making that sound. Mouse was right on the money: this is a bad, bad place, right up there with the charming town of Harko, Illinois. Sonny wishes to encounter no more Harkos, okay? One was enough. So why is he moving forward instead of turning around and running for the sunny peace of Highway 35? Why is he pulling that massive gun out of his pocket? It’s simple. He is not about to let that jet-airplane-dog mess up his homeys, no matter how much his head hurts. John Henry keeps pounding in those five-dollar spikes while Sonny picks up speed and squints at the road ahead, trying to figure out what is going on. Someone screams, he cannot identify who. Through the growling, he hears the unmistakable sound of a motorcycle hitting the ground after a flip, and his heart shivers. Beezer should always be point man, he thinks, otherwise we’re asking for punishment. A gun goes off with a loud explosion. Sonny forces himself to press through the gluey atoms in the air, and after another five or six seconds he spots Beezer, who is painfully pushing himself upward beside his toppled bike. A few feet beyond Beezer, Doc’s bulky figure comes into view, sitting astride his bike and aiming his 9 at something in the road ahead of him. Doc fires, and red flame bursts from the barrel of his pistol. Feeling more beat-up and useless than ever before in his life, Sonny jumps from his moving bike and runs toward Doc, trying to look past him. The first thing he sees is a flash of light off Mouse’s bike, which comes into view flat on its side about twenty feet down the road, at the top of the curve. Then he finds Mouse, on his ass and scrambling backward from some animal Sonny can barely make out, except for its eyes and teeth. Unconscious of the stream of obscenities that pour from his mouth, Sonny levels his pistol at the creature and fires just as he runs past Doc. Doc just stands there; Doc is out for the count. The weird animal up on the road closes its jaws on Mouse’s leg. It is going to rip away a hamburger-sized chunk of muscle, but Sonny hits it with a fucking hollow-point missile from his Magnum, a bit show-offy for target practice but under the circumstances no more than prudent, thank you very much. Contrary to all expectations and the laws of physics, Sonny’s amazing wonderbullet does not knock a hole the size of a football in the creature’s hide. The wonderbullet pushes the animal sideways and distracts it from Mouse’s leg; it does not even knock it down. Mouse sends up a howl of pain. The dog whips around and glares at Sonny with red eyes the size of baseballs. Its mouth opens on jagged white teeth, and it snaps the air. Ropes of slime shoot out of its jaws. The creature lowers its shoulders and steps forward. Amazingly, its snarling grows in volume and ferocity. Sonny is being warned: if he does not turn and run, he is next on the menu. â€Å"Fuck that,† Sonny says, and fires straight at the animal’s mouth. Its whole head should fly apart in bloody rags, but for a second after the Magnum goes off, nothing changes. Oh, shit, Sonny thinks. The dog-thing’s eyes blaze, and its feral, wedge-shaped head seems to assemble itself out of the darkness in the air and emerge into view. As though an inky robe had been partially twitched aside, Sonny can see a thick neck descending to meaty shoulders and strong front legs. Maybe the tide is turning here, maybe this monster will turn out to be vulnerable after all. Sonny braces his right wrist with his left hand, aims at the dog-thing’s chest, and squeezes off another round. The explosion seems to stuff his ears with cotton. All the railroad spikes in his head heat up like electric coils, and bright pain sings between his temples. Dark blood gouts from the creature’s brisket. At the center of Sonny Cantinaro’s being, a pure, primitive triumph bursts into life. More of the monster melts into visibility, the wide back and a suggestion of its rear legs. Of no recognizable breed and four and a half feet high, the dog-thing is approximately the size of a gigantic wolf. When it moves toward him, Sonny fires again. Like an echo, the sound of his gun repeats from somewhere close behind; a bullet like a supercharged wasp zings past his chest. The creature staggers back, limping on an injured leg. Its enraged eyes bore into Sonny’s. He risks glancing over his shoulder and sees Beezer braced in the middle of the narrow road. â€Å"Don’t look at me, shoot!† Beezer yells. His voice seems to awaken Doc, who raises his arm and takes aim. Then all three of them are pulling their triggers, and the little road sounds like the firing range on a busy day. The dog-thing (hell hound, Sonny thinks) limps back a step and opens wide its terrible mouth to howl in rage and frustration. Before the howl ends, the creature gathers its rear legs beneath its body, springs across the road, and vanishes into the woods. Sonny fights off the impulse to collapse under a wave of relief and fatigue. Doc swivels his body and keeps firing into the darkness behind the trees until Beezer puts a hand on his arm and orders him to stop. The air stinks of cordite and some animal odor that is musky and disgustingly sweet. Pale gray smoke shimmers almost white as it filters upward through the darker air. Beezer’s haggard face turns to Sonny, and the whites of his eyes are crimson. â€Å"You hit that fucking animal, didn’t you?† Through the wads of cotton in his ears, Beezer’s voice sounds small and tinny. â€Å"Shit, yes. At least twice, probably three times.† â€Å"And Doc and I hit it once apiece. What the hell is that thing?† † ‘What the hell’ is right,† Sonny says. Weeping with pain, Mouse a third time repeats his cry of â€Å"Help me!† and the others hear him at last. Moving slowly and pressing their hands over whatever parts of their bodies hurt the most, they hobble up the road and kneel in front of Mouse. The right leg of his jeans is ripped and soaked with blood, and his face is contorted. â€Å"Are you assholes deaf ?† â€Å"Pretty near,† Doc says. â€Å"Tell me you didn’t take a bullet in your leg.† â€Å"No, but it must be some kind of miracle.† He winces and inhales sharply. Air hisses between his teeth. â€Å"Way you guys were shooting. Too bad you couldn’t draw a bead before it bit my leg.† â€Å"I did,† Sonny says. â€Å"Reason you still got a leg.† Mouse peers at him, then shakes his head. â€Å"What happened to the Kaiser?† â€Å"He lost about a liter of blood through his nose and passed out,† Sonny tells him. Mouse sighs as if at the frailty of the human species. â€Å"I believe we might try to get out of this crazy shithole.† â€Å"Is your leg all right?† Beezer asks. â€Å"It’s not broken, if that’s what you mean. But it’s not all right, either.† â€Å"What?† Doc asks. â€Å"I can’t say,† Mouse tells him. â€Å"I don’t answer medical questions from guys all covered in puke.† â€Å"Can you ride?† â€Å"Fuck yes, Beezer you ever know me when I couldn’t ride?† Beezer and Sonny each take a side and, with excruciating effort, lift Mouse to his feet. When they release his arms, Mouse lumbers sideways a few steps. â€Å"This is not right,† he says. â€Å"That’s brilliant,† says Beezer. â€Å"Beeze, old buddy, you know your eyes are, like, bright red? You look like fuckin’ Dracula.† To the extent that hurry is possible, they are hurrying. Doc wants to get a look at Mouse’s leg; Beezer wants to make sure that Kaiser Bill is still alive; and all of them want to get out of this place and back into normal air and sunlight. Their heads pound, and their muscles ache from strain. None of them can be sure that the dog-thing is not preparing for another charge. As they speak, Sonny has been picking up Mouse’s Fat Boy and rolling it toward its owner. Mouse takes the handles and pushes his machine forward, wincing as he goes. Beezer and Doc rescue their bikes, and six feet along Sonny pulls his upright out of a snarl of weeds. Beezer realizes that when he was at the curve in the road, he failed to look for Black House. He remembers Mouse saying, This shit doesn’t want to be seen, and he thinks Mouse got it just about right: the Fisherman did not want them there, and the Fisherman did not want his house to be seen. Everything else was spinning around in his head the way his Electra Glide had spun over after that ugly voice spoke up in his mind. Beezer is certain of one thing, however: Jack Sawyer is not going to hold out on him any longer. Then a terrible thought strikes him, and he asks, â€Å"Did anything funny anything really strange happen to you guys before the dog from hell jumped out of the woods? Besides the physical stuff, I mean.† He looks at Doc, and Doc blushes. Hello? Beezer thinks. Mouse says, â€Å"Go fuck yourself. I’m not gonna talk about that.† â€Å"I’m with Mouse,† Sonny says. â€Å"I guess the answer is yes,† Beezer says. Kaiser Bill is lying by the side of the road with his eyes closed and the front of his body wet with blood from mouth to waist. The air is still gray and sticky; their bodies seem to weigh a thousand pounds, the bikes to roll on leaden wheels. Sonny walks his bike up beside the Kaiser’s supine body and kicks him, not all that gently, in the ribs. The Kaiser opens his eyes and groans. â€Å"Fuck, Sonny,† he says. â€Å"You kicked me.† His eyelids flutter, and he lifts his head off the ground and notices the blood soaking into his clothing. â€Å"What happened? Am I shot?† â€Å"You conducted yourself like a hero,† Sonny says. â€Å"How do you feel?† â€Å"Lousy. Where was I hit?† â€Å"How am I supposed to know?† Sonny says. â€Å"Come on, we’re getting out of here.† The others file past. Kaiser Bill manages to get to his feet and, after another epic struggle, hauls his bike upright beside him. He pushes it down the track after the others, marveling at the pain in his head and the quantity of blood on his body. When he comes out through the last of the trees and joins his friends on Highway 35, the sudden brightness stabs his eyes, his body feels light enough to float away, and he nearly passes out all over again. â€Å"I don’t think I did get shot,† he says. No one pays any attention to the Kaiser. Doc is asking Mouse if he wants to go to the hospital. â€Å"No hospital, man. Hospitals kill people.† â€Å"At least let me take a look at your leg.† â€Å"Fine, look.† Doc kneels at the side of the road and tugs the cuff of Mouse’s jeans up to the bottom of his knee. He probes with surprisingly delicate fingers, and Mouse winces. â€Å"Mouse,† he says, â€Å"I’ve never seen a dog bite like this before.† â€Å"Never saw a dog like that before, either.† The Kaiser says, â€Å"What dog?† â€Å"There’s something funny about this wound,† Doc says. â€Å"You need antibiotics, and you need them right away.† â€Å"Don’t you have antibiotics?† â€Å"Sure, I do.† â€Å"Then let’s go back to Beezer’s place, and you can stick me full of needles.† â€Å"Whatever you say,† says Doc. How to cite Black House Chapter Nineteen, Essay examples

Breaking Chains of Organizational Structure †MyAssignmenthelp.com

Question: Discuss about the Breaking Chains of Organizational Structure. Answer: Introduction: The Lambton College in Mississauga has a flat organization structure. A flat organizational structure has no middle layers of management whereas a hierarchical organization consists of layered management structure which represents a pyramid (Ashkenas et al., 2015). This can be seen from the components of the traditional system of the college. The major components are the people in the college comprising of employees and non-employees, procedures, information data, software and hardware (Principles of Information Security, Fifth Edition, 2017). Along with this, the network components are also included in the main components of the college. Thus, the organizational structure is considered to be of flat model to support these components. References: Ashkenas, R., Ulrich, D., Jick, T., Kerr, S. (2015).The boundaryless organization: Breaking the chains of organizational structure. John Wiley Sons. Laudon, K. C., Laudon, J. P. (2015). Management Information Systems: Managing the Digital Firm Plus MyMISLab with Pearson eText--Access Card Package. Prentice Hall Press. Peppard, J., Ward, J. (2016).The strategic management of information systems: Building a digital strategy. John Wiley Sons. Principles of Information Security, Fifth Edition. (2017). Retrieved from https://1857955_257717431_5-ISN1003Ch05RiskManagement-Co.pdf

Sociology of Poverty in Britain Essay Example

Sociology of Poverty in Britain Essay a) Using the information in item A, identify two trends in the growth of poverty amongst British households in the 1980s and 1990s.The report, Poverty and Social Exclusion in Britain, shows that the proportion of households living in poverty rose from 14 to 24 % between 1983 and 1999. This indicates a significant increase in the phenomenon of poverty throughout Britain as a whole. In 1999 almost a quarter of households were experiencing poverty in Britain compared to less than a sixth in 1983.However, the growth of poverty was most rapid in the 1980s when 1% of households became poor each year. During the 1990s this figure fell to 0.3% a year. This statistic suggests that although poverty is continuing to rise the trend is heading towards a plateau or critical mass of poverty. i.e. if trends continue the rate of poverty will cease to increase and a consistent proportion of the population will experience poverty each year.b) Using the data in Item B, identify two main changes in the p ercentage share of the national income between 1979 and 1995.Data such as the Family Expenditure Survey demonstrate trends in the proportions of population situated in each income distribution decile. Item B shows that those in the top decile (defined in 1997 by Goodman, Webb and Johnson as: a single person earning à ¯Ã‚ ¿Ã‚ ½22,000 per annum; a couple with children with a gross income of à ¯Ã‚ ¿Ã‚ ½50,000; or a childless couple earning à ¯Ã‚ ¿Ã‚ ½17,000 each per annum) held 21% of the national income. In 1995 this figure had increased to 27% of the national income.Conversely, those in the bottom decile (e.g.. a pensioner with a basic pension of just à ¯Ã‚ ¿Ã‚ ½58.85 in 1997) accounted for only 4% of the national income in 1979. However, by 1995 this had almost halved to only 2.2% of the national income held by the bottom tenth of the population. These figures suggest a trend known as economical polarization, whereby the wealth of the economic elite is increasing at the expense of the lower deciles of society. Whilst the rich become richer, the poor are becoming poorer. This supports the Marxist claim that the capitalist system is only beneficial to the bourgeoisie, if national income is expressed as a hypothetical pie, the richest deciles continue to take larger and larger slices and as such, those in poverty did not reap the benefits of economic growth under the Thatcher government of the 1980s.c) Identify and explain two difficulties facing sociological researchers attempting to measure relative poverty.Townsend claims that individuals can be said to be in poverty when they lack the resources to obtain the types of diethave the living conditions which are customary or at least widely encouraged or approved in the societies to which they belong. Townsend operationalized this definition in the creation of his deprivation index, discovering that 22.9% of the population were in poverty in 1969 according to this criterion whilst by the state standard it was only 9.2. However, researchers face many problems in attempting to measure relative poverty.Pichaud criticizes Towensends index commenting that it is unclear what items such as eating fresh meat have to do with poverty or how they are selected. In this respect, the measurement of relative poverty appears to be as invalid as Rowntrees early work employing absolute definitions. Similarly, such indexes may be more greatly affected by cultural and social differences than the existence of poverty. For example, if a convention towards vegetarianism arose in society, according to this criterion a high proportion of the population would be experiencing poverty when this is clearly not the case. Pichaud states that taken to its logical conclusiononly when everyone behaved uniformly would no-one be described as deprived. The decision to include and exclude certain items in fact reflects the views of the researcher not what is customary to society as a whole.A problem which faces all researche rs in the measurement of poverty is that of finding a point at which a line can be drawn. Selecting a line at which poverty starts to increase rapidly is as arbitrary as any other , e.g. the EUs suggestion of 50% of the national average income. Similarly research such as Townsends is criticized on the basis that it is in fact a reflection of inequality, not poverty. In this respect the measurement of relative poverty is essentially worthless as inequality will always exist. Researchers such as Sen claim that relative deprivation cannot be the only basis for the concept of poverty, there must be an irreducible core of absolute deprivation in our idea of poverty. A distinction between poverty and inequality must be made clearly by researchers, i.e.. if famine were widespread in society it would be false to claim that there was no poverty as all members were experiencing equal circumstances.d) Using your wider sociological knowledge, outline the evidence that some groups are more vulne rable to poverty than others.Researchers such as Oppenheim and Alcock have investigated the social distribution of poverty. Such research suggests that certain groups of society, for example women and the elderly are more vulnerable to poverty than others.Official statistics show that full-time participation in the labour market greatly reduces the risk of experiencing poverty, 75% of those where the head of the family were unemployed were experiencing poverty. Similarly 34% of lone pensioners were experiencing poverty. In stark contrast, only 2% of couples in full time work were defined as poor. Clearly therefore, earning power is conversely proportional to the likelihood of suffering poverty.Oppenheim and Harker cite gender as significant with regards to poverty. Most statistics do not take into account the sex of individuals as they are broken down into households. In 1996, estimates suggest that 5.2 million women were in poverty compared to only 4.2 million men. Women nearly alw ays have lower independent incomes than men, income is not distributed evenly throughout the household. Webb found in 1991 that an estimated 2 thirds of adults in the poorest households were women. Furthermore the womens average independent income was only à ¯Ã‚ ¿Ã‚ ½99 compared to à ¯Ã‚ ¿Ã‚ ½199 for men. Reasons for this trend include the fact that lone parents are vulnerable to poverty and nine tenths of these are women (58% of lone parents are defined as poor.). Similarly, Glendinning and Millar claim that women are disadvantaged in labour market, many women care for sick or elderly relatives but receive only paltry state allowances for doing so.Ethnicity also appears to be another factor which contributes to poverty. Bertouds study calculating figures on Households Below Average Income concluded that ethnic background may severely disadvantage the individual. 84% of Bangladeshis receive less than half the average national income compared to only 28% of white people, and only 1 % of Pakistanis earn above one and a half times the average compared to 23% of white people. The conclusion is that poverty is more prevalent among ethnic minorities than white people, despite the fact that there are fewer pensioners and lone parents among them. Bertoud states that the Bangladeshis and Pakistanis are perhaps the poorest group in Britain. This is attributed to the fact that more men are unemployed in these groups and few women seek employment external to the home, this again confounds the theory that lack of earning ability increases vulnerability to poverty. Pete Alcock adds that ethnic groups are just as likely to experience social deprivation as material deprivation, particularly due to the enduring racism of lower socio-economic groups.The disabled present the final group vulnerable to poverty, again this is likely to be a result of their low earning power. Oppenheim and Harker argue that they face the risks of poverty because of inadequate benefits. Consistently , research into poverty has displayed that state supplements and income support given to all groups vulnerable to poverty are not sufficient to lift them out of it.The conclusion appears to be that the only way to avoid poverty is via full time access to the labour market. However, this is refuted by the growth of self employed individuals experiencing poverty (27% in 1992). This group has grown in prominence due to economic backlash during the late 80s and early 90s, leaving any unemployed but lacking the skills to make a success of their own businesses. Still, it is clear that certain groups are more vulnerable to poverty than others most noticeably the unemployed.e) Outline and assess the major sociological explanations for the increase in poverty when living standards for the majority are rising.The three major explanations for the increase in poverty are: cultural, e.g. Oscar Lewiss observation of South American peasant cultures; individual, for example the Dependency culture ( Murray [1994], Marsland [1989] ); and structural theories such as Marxism and functionalism.The earlier, individualistic theories of poverty inevitably placed the blame on the poor themselves. Neither society, or societal groups were held accountable, the poor were poor because they were unable or unwilling to provide adequately for their own well being. Cultural theorists such as Oscar Lewis suggest that values such as fatalism, apathy and immediate gratification characteristic of the poor perpetuate their situation. In turn these norms are transmuted to each new generation creating a poverty stricken sub- culture independent of the rest of society. As a result, poor groups are unable to seek the benefits of increasing living standards because they are conditioned to accept their situation and unwilling to make the effort to change it. For example with regards to education, the poor are averse to seeking higher or even further education due to the delay of gratification. As a resul t they are condemned to the lower, unskilled echelons of the labour market.However such claims are criticized as presenting only a middle class and value laden perspective. In particular, the specific observation of South American cultures cannot be generalized to western industrial societies. Groups such as Marxists would condemn such studies as an excuse to blame the poor and exonerate the capitalist system which exploits the poor to the advantage of the economic elite. The poor are unable to seek the higher living standards of the privileged majority because the system is biased against them. Poverty stricken groups are subjugated by the bourgeoisie in order to glean extra profits and capital via labour exploitation.Herbert Spencer was an advocate of individualistic theory and strong critic of the poor. He argued that usually a poor fellow was also a bad fellow. According to Spencer it was wrong to help or show sympathy for those who engaged in dissolute living, if an individual was too lazy to work then he deserved to starve. Critics would argue that Herbert Spencer presents an out- moded and ignorant attitude to the poor, in claiming that the poor do not take responsibility for themselves the bourgeoisie are in fact shirking responsibility for the capitalist system which disadvantages those in poverty. However such perspectives are still relevant today as they unwittingly reveal the ignorance of the privileged who are prepared to perpetuate a system which exploits those they consider to be inferior.In this respect, cultural theory of dependency is closely linked to individualistic theory in terms of explanations of poverty. Similarly it is used to blame the poor for their situation and negates the structural causes of poverty.New Right thinkers such as David Marsland claim that the lower deciles of society benefit from the economic growth of Britain without contributing to it. Seemingly, the cultural explanation is that the welfare state creates a lack of incentive for the poor to seek paid employment. Therefore the more privileged members of society justifiably enjoy higher standards of living as they work hard to achieve them. Peripherally they also fund the welfare state via national taxes and as a result the poor receive financial support by proxy from the middle and upper classes.Again, this perspective seeks to justify the actions of the elite in their attempts to detach themselves from the poverty suffered by others. The welfare state presents a simple and easy way of life to these groups and as such they are reconciled to their poverty. Followed to its logical conclusion it is necessary to disestablish the welfare state in order to prevent this. This cause of action would force the poor to seek employment in the labour market where they could a) contribute to Britains economy, and b) subsequently improve their standards of living.Charles Murray presents a similar argument in his study of the American underclass. This sub- cu lture of poverty does not seek elevation to privileged society as it is functions using its own norms and values whilst receiving financial support from wider society.Despite the fact that such arguments were held in high esteem by the Conservative governments of Thatcher and Major, critics such as Dean and Taylor Gooby refute its claims. They state that the culture of dependency theory extols the values of self reliance and hard work but denigrates laziness and dependence on others. In fact reliance upon others decreases human happiness and it is therefore unlikely that those experiencing poverty do so as a result of calculated choices. It is not rational to assume that, whilst the standard of living rises for the majority, the poor would rationally seek to exclude themselves from social elevation.Cultural and individualistic arguments are strongly contested by those who point out the existence of situational constraints. This argument claims that the poor can only change their beh aviour once situational constraints such as unemployment are removed.Similarly, conflict theories such as Marxism suggest that the poor are victims of a biased, capitalist system rather than the cause of their own poverty. The government claims to seek economic equality using methods such as progressive taxation, the threshold of which may not even be reached by the poorest members of society. However, indirect taxation such as VAT tends to be regressive. Duties on alcohol and tobacco swallow a greater proportion of income from the poorer sections of the community than the rich ones. However it could be suggested that those in poverty should not waste their money on frivolous expenditures such as these.Similarly conflict theorists argue that welfare systems such as income support may eradicate absolute poverty but do little with regards relative poverty. Therefore, inequality and economic polarization between upper and lower deciles is ever more prevalent. Le Grand concluded that th rough housing policy the richest group receives nearly twice as much per household as the poorest group. This confounds the Marxist view that the economy is biased in such a way as the poor remain down trodden whilst the rich elite take more and more economically.Marxist theorist such as Ralph Miliband place less distinction between the poor and other members of the working class. Westergaard and Resler claim that by focusing on the desperately poor the elite attempts to divert attention from the larger structure of inequality in which poverty is embedded. The poor are merely the most disadvantaged stratum of the working class which as a whole is exploited. As economic growth has continued throughout recent decades little filters through to the working class as a whole due to the capitalist greed of the economic elite. According to Kincaid the low wage sector helps to underpin and stablise the whole structure and yet the poor reap no benefits. Obviously, this stabilization is merely used to further increase the privilege of the bourgeoisie at the expense of the masses who are essential to the system as a whole. Though living standards on the whole increase, so to does inequality. Whilst the poorest sections of society may be placated by the economic ability to purchase DVDs and Digital television, the upper classes grow fatter and fatter with the wealth they have exploited.Clearly, functionalists would dispute these Marxist claims. For example, Parson and his contemporaries explain such inequality as the result of the weighted uses of those in society. An unskilled worker is no where near as necessary as a brain surgeon with years of training. Similarly the unskilled worker greatly out numbers the brain surgeon, it would therefore be dysfunctional to provide both with the same proportion of national income. Morally each individual has equal worth but functionally this is not the case and economic distribution represents this. Inequality is an inevitable social phenomenon, if the poor seek to align themselves in terms of skills and values then they would be able to experience the gains of the majority.

Alfred Wegeners theory of continental drift

Alfred Wegeners theory of continental drift In spite of the fact that similarities of the continents’ coastlines are noticed by researchers during the centuries, thehypothesis that these continents could previously form the supercontinent seemed to be rather ridiculous.Advertising We will write a custom assessment sample on Alfred Wegener’s theory of continental drift specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More During the early part of the 20th century, Alfred Wegener, the German scientist, published the book in which he attempted to prove the theory of the continental drift which provided the basics for explaining the formation of different continents (Oberrecht, 2013). Although Wegener provided a lot of evidences based on the discussion of continental fits and results of investigations in paleontology and paleoclimatology, the scientist failed to explain the mechanisms which made the blocks move, thus, only the development of scientific method and theory contributed to fin ding the sound evidences to support and accept the theory of continental drift in the scientific world. During the last part of the 20th century, a lot of evidences related to the physical geography were collected to support Wegener’s theory of continental drift. The contemporaries of Wegener rejected the scientist’s idea of the continental drift because it was extremely revolutionary, and the argument lacked the necessary evidences. However, the further researches in the field provided the evidences to speak about the fit of continental coastlines directly, not only with references to similarities of the South American and African continents’ coastlines, because of the possibility to analyze the fit with the help of computer technologies in the 1960s. Moreover, the similarities in the rock sequences located at different continents which were discussed by Wegener were also explored and proved with the help of modern technologies. Furthermore, during the 1950s-19 60s, the researchers received the opportunity to examine the ocean floor in detail, and as a result, to propose the detailed map of the ocean floor with the determined great ridge to prove the ideas about the role of the deep ocean trenches in the continental drift (From continental drift to plate tectonics, n.d., p. 308).Advertising Looking for assessment on geology? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More In spite of the fact that Wegner provided a range of evidences to support the idea of the continents’ movements with references to parallelism of the coastlines, similarities in climates, fossil correlations, and different geologic similarities, scientists accepted the theory only during the second part of the 20th century because Wegner could not explain the mechanism of the continental drift. Thus, Wegner’s argument about the mobile blocks of crust seemed to be incomplete because the mechanism of this mobi lity was not identified. However, the investigations on the nature of the ocean floor, the great ridge, magnetic reversals, and the nature of earthquakes led to the development of theory of plate tectonics (Tackley, 2000, p. 2003). Modern scientists accept the theory of continental drift because it is explained with references to the mechanism known today as the movement of tectonic plates in relation to each other. The development of the theory of continental drift and associated scientific method depends on the progress of technologies to receive and analyze the empirical evidences to prove the hypotheses. The theory of continental drift was formulated by Wegner in 1915, but different researchers added to its development and investigation of the process while providing the supportive evidences. Thus, Harry Hess explored the features of the oceanic lithosphere to explain the possible movements. Hess’s investigations were supported with evidences from the seafloor geology. Du ring 1963, Vine and Matthews â€Å"put Hess’s ideas together with the magnetic reversals discovered on land and the magnetic stripes of the seafloor† (From continental drift to plate tectonics, n.d., p. 308). The theory of plate tectonics was discussed in further investigations as fundamental to explain the plates’ movements referring to the synthesis of the seafloor geology with the continental researches. The scientific method in the form of different techniques used by researchers to discuss the natural phenomena contributes to understanding the natural world because of explaining the natural processes and providing the sound evidences to demonstrate the credibility of the ideas.Advertising We will write a custom assessment sample on Alfred Wegener’s theory of continental drift specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More To understand the natural world means to understand the processes according to which natural p henomena develop, and scientists explain these processes while proving the scientific hypotheses. Nevertheless, the real scientific knowledge can be received only with the help of experiments or proper scientific exploration (Yi Oldroyd, 1989, p. 22). The understanding of the natural phenomenon depends on the researchers’ findings received as a result of different types of theoretical and empirical investigations, as it is observed with references to examining the continental drift. The theory of continental drift became widely discussed as credible after the theory of plate tectonics provided the mechanism for it. According to the plate tectonics theory, the blocks of crust can move in relation to each other because of the impact of structural trends, deep ocean trenches, magnetism, the movements associated with the ocean ridge’s central rift (Mayhew, 2013, p. 141; Stein, 1999). Thus, the lithosphere is fragmented because of the different geological or physical proce sses, and these processes also led to the continental drift. From this perspective, the plate tectonics also explains the definite process of continental drift. Referring to the fundamentals of the crust and plates’ formation, the theory explains the processes of plates’ destruction and movements as a result of the geological processes (The theory of plate tectonics, 2013). In this case, the explanation of the continental drift is based on the same key aspects as the explanation of such processes as volcanism or seismicity (Shipley, 2003, p. 487). In addition, the plate tectonics also explains such natural landforms as the Himalayas and the Ring of Fire in the Pacific Ocean. Following the theory, rock sequences are formed at the place of the plates’ collision. Thus, the Himalayas are formed at the place of the Indo-Australian and Eurasian Plates’ collision.Advertising Looking for assessment on geology? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More The occurrence of earthquakes and volcanoes also depends on the theory of plate tectonics and on the specifics of the plates’ location and possible collision. From this point, the Ring of Fire in the Pacific Ocean is the territory where many active volcanoes are located and where frequent earthquakes are observed. The moving plates can cause the significant earthquakes and following destructions because a lot of the energy is released (Dietz, 1983). Alfred Wegener’s theory of continental drift was discussed as ridiculous and revolutionary during the early part of the 20th century, but later it was proved because of the efforts of the scientists interested in the question. The developed theory of plate tectonics was effective to explain the mechanism of the continental drift, thus, many controversial questions were resolved with references to the developed scientific method and different approaches used by the scientists to find the answers to the problematic questions. References Dietz, R. (1983). In defense of drift. Sciences, 23(6), 22-26.     From continental drift to plate tectonics: The evidence. (n.d.). Web. Mayhew, R. (2013). Research resource review: The Continental Drift Controversy (four volumes). Progress in Physical Geography, 37(1), 140-147. Oberrecht, K. (2013). The theory of continental drift. Web. Shipley, B. (2003). Plate tectonics: An insiders history of the modern theory of the Earth. British Journal for the History of Science, 36(131), 487-488. Stein, D. (1999). The rejection of Continental Drift: Theory and method in American earth science. American Scientist, 87(5), 467-468. Tackley, P. (2000). Mantle convection and plate tectonics: Toward an integrated physical and chemical theory. Science, 288(5473), 2002-2007. The theory of plate tectonics. (2013). Web. Yi, Y., Oldroyd, D. (1989). The introduction and development of Continental Drift Theory and Plate Tectonics in China: a case study in the transference of scientific ideas from West to East. Annals of Science, 46(1), 21-34.

CJ 450 Counterterrorism Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

CJ 450 Counterterrorism - Essay Example Arguably there are various reasons for terrorism attacks and hence each motive requires different approach to tackling terrorism. Some of the reasons include political conflict, religious clashes, gaining publicity and in some cases divine instruction to conduct terrorist attacks. (Victoroff, 2006). The terrorist believe that such motives justify their actions although many will agree that there is no justification to terrorism whichever way we look at it. For example the September 11 attack was fuelled by religious motives and political motives. When governments or those in authority understand the motives behind terrorist attacks then they can forge on in their efforts to reduce these tensions and dissatisfactions in an intelligent way hence counter terrorism. It seems that counter terrorism is a tactic of warfare. These efforts are usually retaliation with equal or greater force as applied y terrorist in order to disempower them. Often than not counterterrorism efforts will include the military and the police force that wage war against these organizations. Although the idea is to fight crime, innocent civilians may suffer in the process. The role of due process in counter terrorism is that both parties feel that they are entitled to use force in fighting for their ideologies (political or otherwise). The victims feel a need to avenge wrongs and in effect the problem doubles in the long run. In fact one of the implications of characterizing terrorists as the enemy rather than mere criminals is that it breeds ground for wa r. Question 2 Due to the sophistication of technology surveillance has changed from the traditional way to a new surveillance. The new system of surveillance includes monitoring inside activities of terrorist groups through satellites monitoring, or spying. Additionally, eavesdropping communication, tapping wire money transfers to trace terrorist funding etc. (Clarke & Newman, 2006). The ideal surveillance technique would be one where the counter terrorism units would gain clandestine sources within the terrorist groups or cells but this situation is almost impossible since these groups tend to be so close knit and bond by strong allegiances. (Clarke & Newman, 2006). It seems that the shift from traditional surveillance methods to the new type has had problematic effect in the civil liberties of the people of United States in that their communication is often been intercepted as the authorities try to trace terrorist linkages. In this light privacy has been infringed on. Additionally, surveillance has had negative connotation to discrimination especially for communities that are associated with terrorist groups. For instance in some place Muslims and Arabs are frown upon and are seen as potential threats due to association with al-Qaeda and Taliban groups. More to that the frequent travel advisories and terrorist alerts instill fear in the lives of people hence multiplying the power that terrorist groups have over the people in US. This denies such communities freedom of movements and enjoyment of life. The quality of life has been reduced to that of slavery like nature. It therefore seems that the counter terrorism efforts have to strike a balance between protecting the liberties of the people and preventing further terrorist attacks. (Meggle, 2005). Notably in order to achieve this all stakeholders have to echo what is important to them. Freedom or security. Nonetheless, even

Financial Analysis of Kellogg's Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 5000 words

Financial Analysis of Kellogg's - Essay Example It adds to the impression of the customers as to how well they're doing and at the same time gives challenge to its competitors. This section roughly discusses the financial performance in a six-year time (2000-2005). At a particular year, 2001, Kellogg Company released its own financial analysis of that year giving explanations and answers to the growth in the proceeding years. An apparent growth has been observed right from 2000 to 2005 in Kellogg's financial performance. Comparisons are often useful within a company to become aware of changes in financial relationships and significant trends. In the Intracompany Basis, a comparison of current year's cash amount with the prior year's cash amount shows either an increase or decrease. And within the span of 6 years (2000-2005), it is very useful to compare such cash amount from the first year (i.e. 2000) compared to the last year of comparison (i.e. 2005). Cash amount gained or lost may vary from 2000-2005. The proportion of total assets in the form of cash can be shown through a comparison of Kellogg's year-end cash amount with the amount total assets at year-end. Furthermore, in order to provide insight into Kellogg's competitive position, it is also practical to compare it with other companies. Correspondingly, Kellogg's total sales for the year can be compared with the total sales of its competitors such as Quaker Oats and General Mills which both obviously competes in the market. Taken as a whole, comparisons with industry averages will provide information about Kellogg's relative position within the industry. Then, Kellogg's financial data can be compared with the averages for its industry compiled by financial ratings organizations such as Dun & Bradstreet, Moody's, and Standard & Poor's. Kellogg's 2000 Financial Analysis In 2000, Kellogg Company achieved growth in net earnings and earnings per share, excluding charges, despite softness in the Company's U.S. convenience foods business, higher energy prices and interest rates, weak foreign currencies, and inventory write-offs in Southeast Asia. Through manufacturing efficiencies, reduced advertising and overhead expenses, and recognition of benefits related to U.S. tax credits, the Company was able to withstand despite such factors. 2000 1999 1998 Net earnings $597.7 $339.3 $502.6 Net earnings per share $1.45 $0.83 $1.23 Due to the previously stated factors or charges, there are exclusions from the results of operations in the following sections for purposes of comparison between years. The year 2000 and 1999 have been compared excluding charges, net earnings and earnings per share in the below table: 2000 1999 Charge Net earnings $651.9 $606.2 +7.5% Net earnings per share $1.61 $1.50 +7.3% The full-year increase in earnings per share of $0.11 consisted of $0.02 from business growth and $0.11 from favorable tax-rate movements, partially offset by $0.02 from unfavorable foreign currency movements. Kellogg's Company then continued to lead the global ready-to-eat cereal category in 2000 with an estimated 38% annualized share of worldwide dollar sales. Category share for the Company's operating segments was approximately 31% in the United States, 43% in Europe, 60% in Latin America, 45% in Canada, 57% in Australia, and 50% in Asia. The growth achieved by Kellogg's Company by the end of 2000

Anthrolpology - Illegal Immigration and the Mexican people (research Essay

Anthrolpology - Illegal Immigration and the Mexican people (research paper) - Essay Example Many have, however, attempted to deny access to housing, schools, medical treatment and social programs to non-citizens. Some argue that U.S. laws apply to all within its borders, legally or not such as the Fifth Amendment right to due process of law. The laws certainly apply to all when they are broken. The federal government, to no one’s surprise, has been no help. For example, the Bush administration has long supported some form of amnesty which has enraged those that are opposed to illegal aliens living, working or going to school in the U.S. On the other hand, the administration also endorses the PATRIOT Act which denies constitutionally guaranteed rights to all people and further punishes immigrants in the effort to win the ‘war on terror.’ The ‘right’ answer escapes the government and many others as well because of the issue’s many complexities. This discussion will examine the immigration debate from a legal, economic and social view. It will present the administration’s answer to the problem along with an opposing opinion. It will also speak to laws germane to the debate including a brief review of the PATRIOT Act, the Fifth Amendment regarding due process and the Fourteenth Amendment which relates to automatic citizenship by birth. The fundamental reason for the flood of immigration from Latin America, specifically Mexico, is the disintegration of the Mexican economy predominantly resulting from free-trade strategies employed by the North American Free Trade Agreement and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The rampant corruption within the Mexican government has also contributed significantly to the collapse of the Mexican economy. â€Å"Due to IMF policies regarding Mexico, its economic output dropped 33 percent in the past two decades† (Small, 2005). During this period, its foreign debt rose 359

The Future of Japans Economy

The Future of Japans Economy Where will Japan be in 20 years? SUMMARY Long-term economic forecasting is still as difficult as ever. Typical previous long-term forecasts have proved to be on average out by as much as 33%. In the present day unsettled political and economic climate forecasting economic future of a country has become even more difficult. Japan‘s economy declined during 1998-2003 period, making the economic pundits wonder if Japan would be able to revive its economy. Significant growth during the last two years shows that Japan’s economy cannot be written off that easily. Japan has many economic factors supporting the likely hood of Japan’s continued economic growth over the next 20 years. On the other hand emergence of China as the third largest economic power, its increasing share in world economy, Japan’s declining working population, huge domestic debt, rising energy prices and unstable world politics could jeopardize the economic growth. Japan need to modify its tax structure and reduce the burden of debts. Recent elections over the decision on privatization of the postal system shows that Japan is prepared to make tough decisions to keep its economy on track. It appears that Japan is already preparing to be a part of the success of the newly emerging economic superpowers. The inter-dependence of the economies will ensure that Japan will continue to make economic progress. An economic development rate of 1.8% over the next 20 years appears to be certainly achievable for Japan. INTRODUCTION The post war years allowed Japan to concentrate on economic development. With nearly no defense expenditure, Japan was able to devote nearly one third of its GNP to investments during 1953-63 [Angus Madison, 2005]. The government policies of investment in education, industry and research and development started bearing fruit and the average annual growth rate during 1960s remained around 11% per annum. The government policies favored encouraging savings, promoting investments, supporting newly emerging industry and promoting exports. Between 1965 and 1970 average growth rate was 11.1% (Financial statistics of Japan, Ministry of Finance, 2005) GDP Growth in real terms** GDP Growth % 1960 8.8 1965 9.2 1970 11.1 1975 4.5 1980 2.8 The steady growth rate of almost 10% per annum helped Japan overtake Federal Republic of Germany in terms of GNP by 1968 to become 2nd only to United States of America. The 1973 oil crisis came as an economic shock to Japan. The second oil price increase of 1979 meant that the oil prices which were around $12.75 a barrel in 1974 increased nearly by 300% to $34 a barrel in 1981 [Nakamura, 2005]. Japan, being almost totally dependent on imported oil reacted quickly by adopting a policy of monetary constraints and improved its energy efficiency to stay competitive and the decline in exports in 1980-2 were recovered by 1984 proving that Japan has the ability to bounce back. The two decades following the Japan’s meteoric rise were the years of globalization. 1980-2000 were the years when the economic development suffered a slow down all over the world. [Weisbrot et al, 2001] call it the period of diminished progress. The 2nd oil price increase of 1979, globalization and flow of capital to third world countries and economic mismanagement have all been blamed for the decline [Weisbrot et al, 2001]. The IMF figures of real per capita GDP (in constant 2000 US$) shows that when compared to 1960-80, almost in all cases per capita GDP declined during the two decades 0f 1980-2000. For the top GDP bracket (which includes Japan), the annual rate of GDP growth fell by 1%. Reference: [Weisbrot et al, 2001] In this global period of economic decline, Japan’s economic also went through a period of recession. When everyone was expanding Japan to continue the economic miracle, Japan’s economy had to face a number of financial crises, some of which in the hindsight appear to be of their own making. [Agarwal, 2004] believes that the liberalization of financial system, the deregulation of banking sector, interests and capital flows were carried out without proper assessment of their impact on the domestic financial markets. Many financial institutions came to the verge of bankruptcy and most of these had to be bailed out to prevent an economic crisis. Some analysts [in Agarwal Agarwal, 2001] believe that unlike United States which stepped into to save the economy from ‘Savings and Loan’, Japan’s Ministry of Finance failure to intervene and making the financial institutions sell their assets to account for hundreds of billion dollars worth of non performing loans is responsible for the economic crisis of Japan during the 1990s. In addition to the financial problems and banking sector near insolvency, the economic experts identified Weak economic activity, low productivity and high prices as some of the reasons for stagnation of economy. Japan’s dwindling working age population means that there will be fewer workers available for economic activity. The domestic financial policies, a reduction in exports due to a global economic down trend resulted in an average growth rate of 1.7% during 1990s [CIA Economic Report, 2005]. In the aftermath of September 11 crisis, the slowing down of US, European and Asian economies has not helped the export based Japanese economy and during 2000-3 Japan’s economy stagnated during this period. During the first half of 2004 Japan’s economy began to show the sign of recovery. It was the first time that the economic figure gave reason for optimism for Japan’s economy during almost a decade; Japan declared a growth rate of 5.25% (seasonally adjusted annual figure). This figure was largely due to the new economic factors now emerging in the world economy, the fast growing Chinese economy. Slower growth in domestic machinery demand and reduction in orders from China resulted in an overall growth rate of 2.25%. Suddenly the economic pundits have become extremely optimistic about Japan’s economic growth in the forthcoming years. The earlier estimates of 3.4% growth for 2005 have now been upgraded by International Monetary Fund (IMF) to 4.5% [IMF Predicts, 2005]. Economics believe that due to pressures of being a democracy, Japan chose not to make hard choices; the banks were forced to hide the non recoverable loans and were obliged to throw good money after bad to appear to be solvent. The government borrowed heavily from the public and now the debt stands at 160% of GDP [CIA Economic Report, 2005]. Japan opted to ignore the option of writing off bad debts and using inflation to overcome the problem and used monetary tactics of accumulation of capital, which to most economist has cost them a longer than expected period of economic decline. The position now is that the banks are in a strong financial position and are generally solvent. The economic recovery from now on can be expected to be on a sound footing [Jerram, 2004]. ECONOMIC FORECASTING The science (or Art) of forecasting the economic future of a country especially a long term forecast is still an uncertain art. The parameters required for the input can and do change over the forecast period. [Artis, 1996] analyzed the economic forecasts error in pre-1983 and post-1983 period to show that the forecasting has not significantly improved during the two periods. While the economic parameters for most of the developing countries are not available in the required detail, for the developed countries it is normally not a major problem, yet the accuracy of the forecast varies by about 1% which is almost 30% out when we recognize that actual growth rate is around 2.75% [The difficult Art of Forecasting, 1996]. It has to be appreciated that some of the factors involved in economic growth are so unpredictable that they cannot be possibly included in economic forecasting, factors such as oil price shocks, unification of two Germany, September 11 terrorist attack, natural disaste rs like floods in New Orleans and Kashmir earthquakes cannot be factored into economic forecasts. The error of 1% in predicting economic trends is an average, in many cases IMF and OECD have been quite accurate in their predictions and the economic forecasting continues to have the confidence of economic planners to use it as a basis of international business as well as for providing planning information to the national economies. METHODOLOGIES OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING [Clements and Henry, 2002] and [Mizon, 2002] present excellent reviews of economic forecasting techniques. [Clements and Henry, 2002] give a detailed explanation of statistical modeling and techniques for generating forecasts. Reasons for errors in macroeconomic forecasts are also covered as also are methods of evaluating forecasts generated by different methods. The reasons for forecast failure are explained in a non-technical language by [Hendry Ericsson, 2001]. [Arsham, 2005] is an excellent reference manual available online for economic forecast modeling. The Forecasting method covered by [Arsham, 2005] include Economic Indicators, Economic Projections, Compound Growth Rate, Time Series Projection, Time Series using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Method, Visual Time Series Projections, Forecasting with Smoothing Techniques and Forecasting with Econometric Models. JAPAN ECONOMY IN 20 YEARS Japan’s economy has overcome the difficulties of the last decade. The growth rate from 2004 is expected to be a healthy 3%. In 2004 Japan achieved a growth rate of 2.25%. The IMF forecast for 2005 and 2006 is an economic growth rate of 4.5%. The worse appears to be over but for future economic growth, Japan has to ensure that its national debt is reduced, the impact of demographic factors is minimized and its exports and overseas production interest are maintained. DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS One of the major factors being identified as potential hazard to future economic development of Japan is its aging population. Japan has an excellent health care system. The life expectancy in Japan is among one of the highest in the developing countries. According to the population statistics 20% of Japan’s population is now 65 years or over. The problem is that the Japan’s population is not being replenished by the new births at the required rate. The fertility rate has dropped to 1.3 children per woman which is well below the replacement level. The concern that Japan’s economy weakened by the recession of more than a decade may be overburdened by the problems of manpower shortage, paying old age benefits to the high percentage of senior citizens. The labor force is likely to shrink by 0.7% [Campbell, 2003] a year between 2000 and 2025 and may well seriously effect the economic development during the next 20 years. The problem is that the life style Japanese have got accustomed to does not encourage child bearing to have the hope of making up the present shortfall in foreseeable future. A survey of Japanese women showed that only 7% of Japanese women saw child bearing is a satisfying experience compared to 60-70% women in other countries [Campbell, 2003]. This means that Japan’s population is likely to continue its trend of declining working age group and an increasing population of 65 years and over. The fiscal implication of the aging population would require a change in the pension system. The present system of pay-as-you-go would mean that â€Å"pure aging effect on public finances for 2000 to 2030 could be debt equal to 190% of 2000 GDP [ ] The United Nation Population Development calculations estimate that if the present situation does not improve, by 2025 Japan will have an average age of 50 years. The population of 65 years and over will be 30% of the total population. The NUPD paints a bleak picture where due to decline in birth rate the proportion of children under 15 will be the same as those of people 80 years and over. This is stark statistics indeed and there is no doubt that Japan will have to take steps to encourage population growth rate to around 3% per annum. However, most social scientists believe that this doom day forecast can be avoided. In the near term Campbell [ ] argues that the gradual decline rate of 0.7% is manageable and the economy can cope with this without undue strain. Campbell [ ] contends that older people will not be a burden on state, the pension premium for the working population may have to be increased to support the pension schemes but it is unlikely to impede the economy. He points out that United States spend 13% of GDP on health care while Japan spent 7.8% for providing a better degree of health care to its population. Usui [ ] believes that women are still not participating in the economy to the extent they could and in case of labor shortage they would play a more active role in the labor market to remove the labor shortage. She also points out to the useful role senior citizens play in upbringing of their grand children releasing parents for a more active economic role. The population growth rates can thus be achieved without removing women from the workforce for an extended period. The demographic dilemma is certainly a cause for concern for Japan’s economy but it appears that Japan will be able to cope with the shortage during the next 20 years. Japan has not been very receptive to the ‘guest workers’ for meeting its manpower requirements but a future shortage may change that situation. Increased productivity, late retirement, more participant of women in work force and possibility of using foreign workers are some of the options that can be used to meet the manpower requirement of the economy. Japan has the highest number of robots in use in the world [CIA Report on Japan Economy, 2005, the automation is another solution to the manpower shortage. However, the real solution in the long term is to encourage population growth through incentives and child support. Negative population growth is a problem in many developed countries and solutions are being found to prevent it from holding the economic development. CHINA AS AN ENGINE FOR JAPAN’S ECONOMY Japan’s economic miracle was greatly helped by the exports to United States. As Japan’s economy developed it was able to find additional partners in Middle East, Europe and in developing countries. The global economic decline during 1980-2000 reduced the pace of economic development in Japan. China’s ‘economic miracle’ during the last few years has been largely responsible for the revival of Japan’s economy. India is also posting impressive economic growth rate during the last few years. Japan’s technological advantage, its competitiveness and its participation in ASEAN places Japan in an advantageous position in helping develop these economies [News Item, 2004]. The recent revival of Japan’s economy has in part been attributed to its exports to China. At present the main exports to China are of high-tech parts. Many of the Japan’s giant corporations are building new facilities in Japan to make products for China and other markets. China has made tremendous progress since a change in its political system. Its foreign trade has grown by double digits for many years. China is now the third largest trading country in the world and its exports to United States were around $150 billion last year putting China ahead of Japan in the list of countries exporting to USA [Herman, 2005]. Many observers believe that this might be a threat to Japan’s economy. But China and Japan, at least for now see this as a window of opportunity for developing their economies. China needs Japan’s technology and Japan recognizes China as an opportunity to reduce its production costs by using cheap labor available in China. China will perhaps welcome Japan’s investment even more than investment from US as Japanese investment does not come with a dose of speeches urging China to reform its political system! China is encouraging direct investment from developed countries and Japan has already built plants in Japan to lower its labor costs and stay competitive in the international markets. Japan-China cooperation in the economic filed appears to be in the interest of both countries. China has an advantage in labor costs and for the foreseeable future China will need the advance Japanese technology to meet its development goals. China is now the second largest market for Japan’s export and it appears that for the next decade or two China- Japan trade will continue to grow for their mutual benefit. China’s GDP of $1.7 trillion is only 13% of that of United States and about one third of that of Japan [Wang, 2005]. China has a population of more than a billion and it is clear that the scope of development in China is enormous. After China agreed to the one-country two-system policy and Hong Kong came under its political control, countries like Singapore, Korea and Japan built considerable production facilities to China to benefit from the cheap labor costs. Hong Kong, of course being a political part of China moved many of its labor intensive industries to China. This has benefited China in boosting its exports. It has been estimated that 60% of Chinese export in 2004 came from the foreign invested enterprises. The profits of Japanese enterprises in China, of course benefit Japan too. It is clear that both China and Japan are using trade to each other’s advantage. What is not well known is that China is not only the fastest growing market for Japan but also for the United States. The Kyoto protocol agreed to keep India and China out of the developed countries list and as such they are not expected to limit green house gases. Although United States has also not agreed to the Kyoto Protocol, it appears that Chinese economy can continue to develop, at least for the time being without the worries for limiting green house gases. Absence of application of Kyoto Protocol would also be advantageous for Japanese companies working in China. JAPAN’S DEBT AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT The total debt of Japan is nearly 160% of its GDP [CIA Economic Report on Japan, 2005]. Most of Japanese debt is however internal. Us Foreign debt is already approaching the internal debt of Japan and it has been estimated that by 2010 US will owe as much to the international lenders as Japan owes to its internal lenders, Japanese people. Although the difference in economic sizes of the two countries is enormous and it is not correct to compare Japan and US on the same economic scale but it does give us an idea that the debt that Japan built during the recession years may not hold it from future development. The demography, the huge debt problem and rise of competitive China are some of the factors Japan will have to contend to make economic progress. As the editorial in Rediscovering Japan Dec 2003 said that with the revival of Japan’s economy economic pundits are once again discovering that Japan has the competitive strength to bounce back. The editorial said that that Japan is still the world second largest economy and it has streamlined itself to meet the emerging challenges from Korea and Japan. It urges US CEOs to be not influenced by media misperception and to take Japan seriously. Japan is far too important to be ignored, it said. THE ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR NEXT 20 YEARS The Editorial from Rediscovering Japan is perhaps the best note to conclude this article. Japan has the potential to develop and compete with the new emerging economies; it had the ability to become energy efficient to stay competitive after the energy crisis of 1973 and 1979 and the new energy prices will probably be more of a headache for gas guzzling economies of the west. Japan has invested in its people and while other countries might build plants to manufacture Japanese cars for the present, Japan has the foresight to invest in the research and development for energy efficient vehicles possibly electric to stay ahead of the competition. [Suzuki, 2004] presented medium term economic forecast for Japan (2004-2010), estimating the economic development rate to remain in the range of 2% per annum. Their forecast is however based on an oil price estimate of $28 per barrel, which we now know is more than twice that. Their assumption regarding improvement in export was also rather conservative. The economic forecasting is poor in estimating up and down turns. Suzuki analysis had projected 2% growth rate for 2004 and 2005, which was actually 2.25% for 2004 and 4.5% estimated for 2005. [Kosai and Ito, 1999] estimate that the economy growth rate for the period 2000-2025 will be 1.8% and as the economic forecast for such a long period of a habit of being out by an average 1% we can safely expect Japan to develop during the next 20 years. Japanese have proved themselves capable of meeting economic challenges presented to them. No one would have believed that Japan had the capability of bouncing back from the ravages of the 2nd World War and develop to an extent where it is seen as a threat to the other economies. One thing is certain Japan is too important to be ignored and is likely to remain so for the next 20 years and beyond. WORK CITED Agarwal, J. 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